Since the difficult years after Hurricane Katrina made landfall, St. Bernard Parish has managed to accomplish a number of quite remarkable things. It has consolidated and renovated its schools with great rapidity, while re-committing itself to nothing less than excellence in the sphere of public education. Its neighborhood associations have begun the important task of identifying and preparing a new group of leaders to become more active in the civic and political spheres. Most impressively, approximately 35,000 people (13,000 households) have returned to rebuild their lives in a parish that was devastated beyond recognition.

What the report, completed by czb LLC and commissioned by the Greater New Orleans Foundation reveals, however, is that all of these gains are being undermined by the lingering presence of large numbers of vacant, damaged homes and commercial structures. In a region that is competing for residents, the 13,000 returned households of St. Bernard remain virtually invisible amidst the ubiquitous ruins that act as a constant reminder not of renewal and rebirth, but of all that was lost in 2005. When one compares home values in the immediate vicinity (i.e., in Plaquemines, Jefferson and Orleans parishes), one is led to the shocking conclusion that St. Bernard has lost $100 million in home equity since 2003.

Adding to the bleak landscape are the three quarters of a million square feet of retail space that sit deteriorated and abandoned. Prior to Katrina, St. Bernard had a supportable retail area of about 699,000 square feet (SF). Today, and for the foreseeable future, it can support no more than 450,000 SF. Having lost over half of its population, having seen a diminution in its relative household income, and having lost the significant secondary purchasing power provided by the Lower Ninth Ward, St. Bernard must come to terms with a smaller, more coherent residential and commercial footprint. Indeed, the czb report urges parish leaders to raze all abandoned housing and commercial structures as quickly as possible, so that the overwhelming feeling of emptiness is replaced with one of activity.

In the longer term, czb believes that the creation of “simple guidelines” for the eventual redevelopment of the parish’s vacant lots “will help communicate control” and a sense that positive factors are beginning to outweigh negative ones. The passage of zoning and sign ordinances (for which the Greater New Orleans Foundation has already paid through a grant) is another critical step in the process of establishing and communicating orderly progress to the market.

The key to St. Bernard’s successful future is to be found in its deliberate, planned use of space. If it is to make the most of its opportunities, it must abandon the haphazard development practices of days past and begin to rebuild from a more compact base. According to the report, the threat facing St. Bernard is not the establishment of long-term affordable housing, but rather continued neglect of the manner in which commercial and residential space is redeveloped in the context of a competitive region.

On a recent journey through several neighborhoods in St. Bernard Parish, one phrase kept repeating itself in my head: “What a shame.” While admiring the courage, determination and love of community that were evident in every person who was fixing their home with the intention of returning, I had to wonder if their efforts would yield the benefits that they deserve. The gaps between renovated homes were considerable in far too many neighborhoods. Redevelopment was happening mostly in isolated spots.

The above conditions notwithstanding, good models for redeveloping the parish do exist. Beyond the occasional costly and contextually inappropriate New Urbanist charette, there was an alternative plan in wide circulation soon after Katrina that emphasized redeveloping neighborhoods and businesses in sustainable clusters while creating new open space that would function as an amenity for the parish and its residents. This latter plan went unimplemented and now we see St. Bernard returning slowly, in fits and starts, with many former residents rebuilding in areas that are otherwise abandoned. What will happen to the values of their homes over time? How can an already financially burdened parish government provide essential services to such a scattered array of people living on its new “frontier” amidst bare slabs and decaying buildings?

Then there is the issue of affordable housing in St. Bernard. Not only is there a surfeit of affordable homes presently on the market, but there is a rapidly growing number of cheaply rehabbed rentals that threatens to stop whatever reinvestment has been made to date in these areas. Nobody questions Jefferson Parish when it voices concerns over increasing levels of disinvestment in some of its neighborhoods. In its “Jefferson Edge 2020 Economic Development Strategy,” recently completed by GCR and Associates, it is plainly and unapologetically asserted that

Demographic change is a natural characteristic of every community, but changes in a community’s population should be a source of concern when the socio-economic “equilibrium” of the community appears to be upset. A healthy, sustainable job market, retail economy, and tax base all hinge on a community’s having a substantial middle class population. If a community witnesses a severe decline in its socio-economic profile, it may become difficult for the community to fund needed services, and the community over time may be seen as a less lucrative, less appealing place to do business.

St. Bernard has never boasted a wealthy population, even by South Louisiana standards. According to a report commissioned by GNOF, current average household income in St. Bernard is $40,000, compared to $45,000 in Plaquemines Parish, $47,000 in Jefferson and $60,000 in St. Tammany. What St. Bernard did have prior to Katrina was a large percentage of homeowners who could count on their housing investments to grow in value over time. A recent article in the Times-Picayune indicated that this is no longer the case. Over the past year, St. Bernard has suffered the greatest decline in housing values (-9%) among all of the parishes within our region. While it is true that the nation as a whole is in the midst of a real estate slump, one can reasonably expect that housing values in most communities will rise once the economy stabilizes. The same assumption cannot be made about St. Bernard given the haphazard manner in which its housing stock is being resurrected. Without a sensible, incentive-based plan that shapes its future residential and commercial footprint, St. Bernard will remain the victim of arbitrary and mostly cheap reconstruction (one non-profit entity actually boasts that it spends only an average of $12,000 per rehab) that will continue to depress home values and discourage serious reinvestment.